New data predicts PC sales will tank in 2026 but Apple is doubling MacBook Neo production according to reports

The AI giveth. And it taketh away. Or something like that. I bring you news of conflicting reports around computer sales. On the one hand, new data predicts PC sales will tank pretty badly over the next few years. On the other, Apple is reportedly doubling MacBook Neo production. So, what gives?

The PC sales data comes from a reputable source, namely research outfit IDC. It is predicting that PC sales will be down by 11.3% in 2026. Perhaps worse, IDC's outlook has 2027 almost as bad and even by 2030 PC, sales won't quite have recovered to 2025 levels.

"The culprit is a persistent memory shortage with no meaningful relief expected before the end of 2027. The knock-on effects are significant: prices are rising and PC manufacturers are struggling to maintain full product portfolios," IDC says.

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The catch is that IDC says PC shipments actually grew in the first quarter of 2026, by 3% versus the same period in 2025. "But that strength was largely borrowed from the future. Buyers, both consumer and commercial, accelerated purchases ahead of anticipated price hikes and product availability constraints," IDC says.

The implication is that PC sales are now going to fall off a cliff. But that isn't quite the case across the board. In fact, Apple's MacBook has been selling so fast, it has singlehandedly "prompted IDC to revise its notebook forecast upward."

PC sales won't recover for years, according to IDC. (Image credit: IDC)

Indeed, the Neo is proving so popular, IDC thinks it will force the PC industry to, "respond with a combination of new silicon, a more efficient OS from Microsoft, and aggressive promotional pricing."

This all ties in with reports that Apple has doubled production of the Neo in respond to huge demand. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reckons Apple is increasing its initial target of five million Neo units for 2026 to fully 10 million.

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This follows Apple CEO describing customer response to the Neo as "off the charts." It does really all make sense. The budget-priced Neo came out just as computers more broadly were getting more expensive. So, Apple's timing turned out to be perfect.

Apple is also arguably one of the few companies with sufficient clout to somewhat mitigate the current memory crisis, be that through forward contracts or just a bit of arm twisting. Which is presumably why it can keep selling the base Neo for $599 while many other computer brands are increasing prices.

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