Why Nintendo Expects Fewer Second-Year Switch 2 Hardware Sales
Overview & Key Takeaways
Nintendo foresees Switch 2 hardware sales declining during the system's second year of availability--an unusual development for successful games systems. This comes as the hybrid console has already sold almost 20 million units in 10 months, but with a price hike waiting in the wings.
The company behind Mario explained why fiscal 2027's (April 1-March 31, 2027) forecast sees a reduction in Switch 2 sales, with the current estimate at 16.5 million units sold. Nintendo offered the following reasons for the reduction: "In light of the strong sales performance in the first year following launch and price adjustments, we expect unit sales for the fiscal year ending March 2027 to decline year-over-year. That said, we view this as a healthy level of sales for Nintendo Switch 2 in its second year after launch, and we continue to anticipate further growth in its installed base."
Intriguingly, the major launch-year success for Switch 2 caught Nintendo a bit off-guard. The company even admitted that the system's sales "reached a level we had not experienced with any of our previous hardware systems."
Nintendo foresees Switch 2 hardware sales declining during the system's second year of availability--an unusual development for successful games systems. This comes as the hybrid console has already sold almost 20 million units in 10 months, but with a price hike waiting in the wings.
The company behind Mario explained why fiscal 2027's (April 1-March 31, 2027) forecast sees a reduction in Switch 2 sales, with the current estimate at 16.5 million units sold. Nintendo offered the following reasons for the reduction: "In light of the strong sales performance in the first year following launch and price adjustments, we expect unit sales for the fiscal year ending March 2027 to decline year-over-year. That said, we view this as a healthy level of sales for Nintendo Switch 2 in its second year after launch, and we continue to anticipate further growth in its installed base."
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Intriguingly, the major launch-year success for Switch 2 caught Nintendo a bit off-guard. The company even admitted that the system's sales "reached a level we had not experienced with any of our previous hardware systems."
This checks out, as Nintendo originally predicted Switch 2 to sell 15 million units in its first fiscal year before increasing the prediction in November. The system reached new sales heights in the US in 2025, and the release of Pokopia gave Switch 2 another shot in the arm earlier this year.
Last year's fiscal forecast also provides another data point for Nintendo: The company stays conservative with hardware predictions. While the current expectation is roughly 3 million fewer consoles sold--a 16.9% decrease--revisions are a regular part of quarterly business briefings.
Looking ahead, Switch 2 will jump in price to $500 from $450 in September in the US. It's unknown whether Nintendo might launch a new bundle to counter the hike, but regardless, investors are probably happy.
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